Five Global Trade and Compliance Curveballs Thrown Before Valentine’s Day (And How to Swing Back)

February 2026 has wasted no time testing global trade and compliance strategies. Over just the past two weeks, we’ve seen tariff hikes, new trade agreements, and compliance rule changes pile on top of each other, and the effects are hitting shippers hard regardless of what’s on the pallets. 

Lumber, electronics, cotton, medical supplies, consumer goods — everyone’s got skin in the game here.

So we pulled together five of the biggest developments and broke down what each one means for your freight, your costs, and your compliance exposure. We also mapped out a game plan for each, because knowing what changed only gets you halfway. Knowing what to do about it is where the value lives.

U.S. Tariff Storm: Allies and Adversaries Hit With Duties

Late January brought a barrage of new tariffs, and nobody got spared. The U.S. slapped a 10% tariff on imports from several European countries (with threats to push it to 25% by June if those nations don’t agree to a Greenland purchase proposal — yes, really). 

Washington also cranked tariffs on South Korean autos, pharmaceuticals, and lumber from 15% to 25%, claiming Seoul isn’t holding up its end of the trade agreement. Toss in a blanket 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran and new 25% duties on advanced computer chips, and you’ve got a full-blown tariff offensive.

Why Mallory Customers Should Care

Higher tariffs mean higher landed costs, full stop. If you’re sourcing lumber, medical supplies, auto parts, or electronics from South Korea, you just absorbed a 10% duty increase overnight. European imports face the same threat, and the Greenland angle makes the timeline unpredictable at best. Retaliatory measures from trading partners could follow, which would squeeze both sides of the supply chain.   

Your 2026 Playbook

• Map Your Tariff Exposure: Pull your import data and identify every product line touching affected countries. You can’t manage what you haven’t measured.
• Accelerate and Reroute: Move up shipments ahead of rate hikes where possible, and explore alternative sourcing from countries outside the crosshairs.
• Leverage Trade Tools: Foreign-Trade Zones, bonded warehouses, and duty drawback programs exist for moments like these. Use them.
• Partner With Your Customs Team: At Mallory Alexander, we can help you audit your classifications, flag duty reduction opportunities, and keep you positioned to move fast when the next round hits.

New Trade Deals Open Doors: U.S. Signs “Reciprocal” Agreements

For all the tariff chaos covered above, Washington has been handing out olive branches too. 

On January 29, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced a reciprocal trade agreement with El Salvador, the first of its kind in the Western Hemisphere. The deal removes tariffs on hundreds of Salvadoran goods while El Salvador commits to labor protections, environmental standards, and a promise not to tax U.S. digital services. 

Guatemala signed a similar agreement days later, and Taiwan locked in a mini-deal capping U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese imports at 15%.  

Why Mallory Customers Should Care

These agreements mean lower costs and more sourcing options. Salvadoran agricultural and industrial products enter the U.S. with reduced or zero tariffs, a direct benefit if you’re buying those inputs. They also support nearshoring strategies that have picked up fast as China sourcing has become a liability. Predictable trade rules, mutual standards recognition, and built-in labor and environmental commitments sweeten the deal further and cut down your risk of border detention or forced-labor scrutiny.

Your 2026 Playbook

• Audit Your Trade Network for Upside: Review your supply and distribution lines for any touchpoints with El Salvador, Guatemala, or Taiwan. Products you already source from these countries may now qualify for lower duties you haven’t captured yet.
• Lock in Your Tariff Savings: Work with our customs team to claim every reduced-duty provision available. That means getting your certificates of origin and qualifying documentation buttoned up now, not after a shipment clears.
• Explore Nearshoring Opportunities: Central America’s improved trade terms make it a viable alternative for production and sourcing. Compare landed costs against your current supply chain and see if the math works.
• Watch for the Next Deal: The USTR has signaled that Latin America is a priority region for bilateral agreements. We will flag new deals as they develop so you can move early and capture first-mover advantages.

USMCA at a Crossroads: North American Trade Pact Uncertain

North America’s trade pact faces its six-year review next July, and the mood is not great. Trump just called USMCA “irrelevant” and floated killing it outright — though his trade officials have since walked that back to “we’ll renew it, but want better terms.” Mexico, clearly reading the room, is already making concessions: tariffs on Chinese imports, new laws favoring domestic production, anything to look indispensable before the real bargaining starts. The question now is whether that’s enough. Entire industries run on duty-free North American trade, and the whole arrangement is suddenly negotiable.

Why Mallory Customers Should Care

It’s straightforward why this story matters: USMCA is what keeps goods moving tariff-free across all of North America. Autos, electronics, agriculture, apparel, you name it. Even the uncertainty alone is enough to freeze cross-border investment and scramble sourcing plans. Should the deal survive, there will still be consequences too, such as tighter rules of origin, new critical minerals provisions, and higher compliance bars across the board. 

The silver lining: Both Mexico and Canada are bending to accommodate U.S. demands, which could ultimately strengthen regional supply chains for companies smart enough to get ahead of it.

Your 2026 Playbook

• Know What You Stand to Lose: Identify every product that moves tariff-free under USMCA today and model what happens to your costs if those preferences tighten or disappear.
• Build Flexibility Into Your Supply Chain: Our trade consultants can help you scenario-plan for multiple outcomes, from renewal with stricter rules to a worst-case return to WTO tariff rates.
• Explore Regional Sourcing Now: Tighter origin rules will reward companies already sourcing within North America. Get ahead of that curve before the review forces your hand.
• Stay Plugged Into the Process: Join industry groups weighing in on the USMCA review. We will track the negotiations and flag compliance changes well before they take effect.

EU’s Carbon Border Tax (CBAM) Takes Effect: Green Compliance Goes Global

Tariffs and trade deals aren’t the only forces impacting global trade and compliance right now. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is now officially all systems go, meaning importers of steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, electricity, or hydrogen into the EU must now buy CBAM certificates covering the carbon emissions embedded in those goods. Effectively, it’s a carbon tariff, and the first of its kind. 

China has already called it unfair and hinted at retaliation. So expect this story to continue generating noise and well beyond the EU.

Why Mallory Customers Should Care

You don’t have to ship steel or cement directly to Europe to feel the impact.

For instance, a U.S. machinery manufacturer that uses significant amounts of steel will see its European customers paying higher total import costs unless the embedded emissions come down. That means European buyers will start favoring suppliers with lower carbon footprints, because it saves them money on certificates. Carbon accounting is becoming a factor in winning contracts, full stop.

The paperwork is real too. EU customers and distributors will ask for detailed emissions data by product and process, and misreporting or missing data can mean penalties or blocked shipments. 

The U.K. and Canada are also exploring similar carbon border rules, so treating CBAM as a Europe-only problem would be a mistake.

Your 2026 Playbook

• Know Your Numbers: Calculate the carbon emissions for every product you export to the EU. You can’t manage what you haven’t measured, and your European buyers will be asking for this data soon.
• Lower Your Carbon Intensity: Sourcing cleaner materials, improving energy efficiency, or switching to low-carbon inputs directly reduces CBAM certificate costs for your customers, which makes your products the easier choice.
• Get Your Documentation Ready Now: Our team can verify your HS codes, confirm which products fall under CBAM, and coordinate emissions reporting with EU customs brokers before a shipment hits the port.
• Stay Ahead of the Copycats: Other countries are building their own versions of carbon border rules. The compliance infrastructure you build for CBAM today will pay off again when similar programs launch elsewhere.

Crackdown on Forced Labor: New U.S. Rules and Enforcement in Effect

Finally, global trade and compliance pressure don’t stop at tariffs and carbon taxes. 

On January 21, U.S. Customs and Border Protection launched a mandatory Forced Labor Portal that centralizes how importers manage shipments detained under Withhold Release Orders and the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act. 

CBP basically built itself a command center for forced labor enforcement, then wasted zero time using it. Days after the portal went live, CBP issued a WRO against a Mexican coffee producer over evidence of withheld wages and debt bondage. 

That brings the fiscal year 2026 count to three enforcement actions, and we’re barely into February.

Why Mallory Customers Should Care

Coffee from Mexico, cotton from Xinjiang, polysilicon tied to forced labor camps. The product categories getting flagged keep expanding, and if any thread of your supply chain connects to a supplier or region with questionable labor practices, you’re looking at seized shipments, costly delays, and the kind of reputational hit that lingers. 

CBP’s new portal wasn’t built for show. It was built to handle a higher volume of cases, which tells you where enforcement is headed. The burden of proof sits with you as the importer to prove your goods are clean, and the DOJ’s Trade Strike Force is watching the same space. One recent case ended in a $54 million settlement against a company that misrepresented product origins to skirt forced labor bans. 

That’s the cost of getting it wrong.

Your 2026 Playbook

• Trace Your Supply Chain Deep: Map your suppliers, then map theirs. Flag any connections to high-risk regions and start building sourcing documentation now, because once a shipment gets detained, you’re already behind.
• Get Set Up on the Portal Before You Need It: Mallory Alexander can help you create your Forced Labor Portal account and build a response plan, so your team can submit documentation the moment CBP raises a flag.
• Tighten Your Supplier Contracts: Add explicit no-forced-labor clauses and audit rights to every agreement. Suppliers that push back on transparency are giving you information you should take seriously.
• Build a Paper Trail That Holds Up: Certificates of origin, labor audits, sourcing records. Keep them current, keep them organized. When CBP comes knocking, the companies with clean files move their goods. Everyone else waits.

Now, It’s Your Move 

Well, that’s a lot of ground to cover before Valentine’s Day. But every one of these developments points to the same reality: Those who treat global trade and compliance as a core business function, not a back-office afterthought, will be the ones best positioned when the dust settles.

Mallory Alexander has spent over a century helping shippers do exactly that: customs brokerage, freight forwarding, trade consulting, warehousing, and more. Our team works as an extension of yours, whether you need to reclassify products under new tariff codes, build a CBAM reporting process from scratch, or stress-test your supply chain against different USMCA outcomes.

You’ve got the updates. Now let’s put a plan behind them.

Contact Mallory Alexander to talk through your global trade and compliance strategy with a team that’s already deep in the details.