Iran War News: Supply Chain Risks and Freight Impacts Week of May 29

Executive Summary  

Three months into the Iran war, shippers are caught between two realities. A peace framework that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz now sits on the table, yet overnight strikes and another round of U.S. sanctions keep its fate uncertain. Across the five fronts covered below, one pattern holds: costs have eased from their springtime highs while staying well above prewar levels.

Intro

After three months of rerouted ships and stacked surcharges, the moment shippers have been waiting for nearly arrived this week. A framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, clear its mines, and extend the ceasefire another 60 days landed on President Trump’s desk.

Then it stalled. Trump has the draft but no signature on it, and only hours before this issue went out, U.S. forces struck an Iranian military site and shot down a wave of attack drones. Washington also leveled new sanctions on the Iranian agency, now charging as much as $2 million a vessel to approve passage. Close, but a long way from done.

So where does that leave the freight you have moving right now? We’re back again to break it down for another week of Iran war news and its impacts.

Air Freight: Fuel Eases, But Capacity Is Still Playing Catch-Up

The Iran war grounded a big slice of global air freight this spring, and the rebound is real but lumpy. Fuel costs are sliding, planes are trickling back into service, and one major lane is climbing for reasons that have nothing to do with the fighting.

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• Jet Fuel Comes Off the Boil: Jet fuel doubled its prewar price by late March, then fell roughly 25% from that peak once non-Gulf refineries opened the taps. A few carriers have already trimmed their fuel surcharges.  
• Capacity Claws Its Way Back: A 12% to 16% hole in global air cargo capacity still lingers, most of it from closed airspace over Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Syria.  
• China to Europe Catches a Break: Rates from China to Europe slipped 3% last week to under $5 per kilo, a small mercy after April’s run-up. 
• China to North America Runs Hot: The China-to-North America lane ran the other way, up 12% to $6.16 per kilo. Credit an early Amazon Prime Day and a relentless appetite for AI hardware, not the war. 
• Book Urgent Freight Early: Electronics and medical shipments on a clock have the least patience for delays. Grab space now, before the next headline tightens things up again.

Ocean Freight: All Eyes on Hormuz, Rates Climb Again

Every container shipper has one eye on the Strait of Hormuz. A reopening would clear the biggest bottleneck of the Iran war. Carriers are creeping back toward the Gulf, but ocean freight rates are climbing for a separate reason: peak season showed up early.

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• Strait of Hormuz Inches Toward Reopening: The framework on the table would clear the mines and reopen the lane that carries a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.  
• Carriers Won’t Rush Back to the Gulf: Ships are drifting toward the Persian Gulf again, but most captains want proof of safe passage. Nobody wants to get boxed in twice.  
• The Gulf Counts the Damage: Iran’s mines and attacks have battered 17 or more merchant ships and stranded their crews, and a U.S. naval blockade has sealed Iranian ports since April 13.  
• Peak Season Crashes the Party Early: Asia-to-U.S. West Coast spot rates jumped 13% last week, the East Coast 14%, and Asia to the Mediterranean 20% to nearly $4,400 per container.  
• Surcharges Pile Up Through June: Carriers have stacked GRIs and PSSs of $600 to $2,000 per container onto June bookings, and Red Sea detours keep adding days to Europe. Lock in space early.  

Domestic: Diesel Bites While Demand Bounces Back

Iran war news hits home through the diesel pump, and prices are still stinging. Fuel has slipped from its spring peak, yet it sits far above last year. Look past the pump, though, for the full domestic freight story. 

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• Diesel Cools But Still Stings: The national average diesel price slipped 7 cents to $5.523 a gallon for the week of May 25. It still runs $2.04 over last year, so the relief feels thin at the register. 
• Where You Fuel Decides What You Pay: California drivers fork over $7.40 a gallon, and the West Coast $6.52, while Texas pumps sell for $4.96. Same truck, wildly different bill.
• Spot Rates Stage a Breakout: Dry van rates jumped 23.7 cents to $2.84 a mile last week, the second-biggest one-week jump on record and the latest step in a steady climb. A round of Roadcheck safety inspections thinned the truck pool, and shippers paid up to keep loads moving.  
• Reefer Rates Run Hot: Refrigerated freight shot up 52.2 cents to $3.59 a mile, its highest mark since early 2022 and 45% above last year. Cold-chain shippers hauling medical and perishable loads took the brunt of it.  
• Confirm Trucks, Pad Your Timelines: Tight capacity creeps back when demand firms and fuel stays high. Book early and give your lead times some breathing room.

Trade Compliance and Sanctions: The Rulebook Changes by the Week

Washington is fighting the Iran war with sanctions as much as missiles, and the rules change weekly. One wrong counterparty or one quietly paid toll turns a routine Gulf shipment into a compliance mess.

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• Washington Targets Iran’s Toll Booth: The U.S. sanctioned Iran’s new Persian Gulf Strait Authority on May 27, plus anyone who works with it. The agency wants up to $2 million a vessel to wave ships through Hormuz, and the Treasury just made paying that a problem.  
• OFAC Spells Out the Trap: OFAC’s standing alert warns that any shipper who pays Iran for Hormuz passage risks U.S. sanctions in return. Translation: pay the toll, wear the consequences.  
• Washington Hunts Iran’s Shadow Fleet: OFAC blacklisted another 19 tankers and hit Amin Exchange, an Iranian money network with front companies in the UAE, Turkey, and Hong Kong. Roughly 87% of tankers hauling Iranian oil already sit on a sanctions list. 
• A Deal Could Loosen the Grip: The framework in front of President Trump dangles relief on some sanctions if Iran signs, including a $300 billion investment fund. Yet Iran hasn’t signed, and no sanctions have dropped.
• Screen Before You Ship: Vet every counterparty and vessel against the SDN list, document your Gulf routing, and revisit force majeure clauses before they bite. A clean paper trail beats a Treasury letter.  

Input Markets and Sourcing: Your Raw Materials Still Carry a War Premium

Finally, as you well know by now, Iran war news reaches your loading dock long before the freight does, and its cost hides inside everything you build with. Plastics, fibers, and wood all repriced after February, and most haven’t come back down.

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• Resin Prices Cooled, But Stay Hot: U.S. polyethylene sellers pushed through roughly 15 cents a pound in April and lined up another 20 cents for May. Prices have backed off their spring peak yet still run about 25% above prewar levels. 
• Cotton Holds a War Premium: Cotton trades around 77 cents a pound, up 18% over last year. Pricier crude keeps polyester expensive, and buyers swing back toward cotton when its rival costs too much.  
• Lumber Stays Tight and Pricey: Lumber sits near $588 per thousand board feet, up about 3% on the month. Thin Canadian supply and an effective tariff burden near 35% keep the squeeze on, war or no war.  
• The Squeeze Starts Overseas: Asian producers from Korea to Taiwan declared force majeure as the naphtha-to-ethylene spread blew past $400 a ton. North American suppliers picked up the slack, and export demand keeps pulling U.S. resin higher.  
• Stock Up Where Lead Times Stretch: Lock resin and packaging contracts now, lean on North American suppliers, and carry an extra buffer on anything with a long fuse. A full warehouse beats an idle production line. 

Where This Leaves You

After three months of detours and surcharges, shippers finally caught a glimpse of the way out this week. A signed deal would cool fuel, reopen Hormuz, and walk rates back toward normal. But until someone signs, your lanes and contracts stay one headline away from trouble. Riding this out means keeping your routes loose and a plan ready for either scenario, and at Mallory Alexander, we’ll be here for you every step of the way.

Iran war news creates real pressure across air, ocean, domestic transportation, and sourcing, but shippers don’t have to handle it alone. Mallory Alexander helps businesses stay ahead of disruption with integrated freight forwarding, warehousing, transportation coordination, and practical trade-compliance support. 

If your team needs help with pressure-testing routes, managing cost exposure, or building a more resilient shipping plan, we’re here for you.  Contact us to learn more.